The pair is probing above 111.00 barrier again after falling to 110.71 in early Asia. Near-term action remains supported by 200SMA for the second day, which underpins for renewed upside attempts, following Friday’s upside rejection.
On the other side, Doji candle with long upper shadow which was left on Friday after recovery extension was capped by daily Kijun-sen at 111.41, weighs on near-term action. Repeated scenario today would signal strong hesitation at pivotal 110.93 barrier (Fibo 38.2% of 114.36/108.80 downleg) and increase downside risk. Overbought slow stochastic on daily chart supports the notion and may put the pair under fresh pressure on bearish signal on reversal.
Such scenario requires close below 200SMA (20/200SMA death cross is also forming) to signal top and open way for fresh downside.
Conversely, sustained break above 110.93/111.00 (Fibo 38.2% / 55SMA) would signal fresh upside which requires break through falling Kijun-sen (111.32) for extension towards 111.85 barrier (100SMA).
Res: 111.00, 111.32, 111.41, 111.85
Sup: 110.71, 110.41, 110.11, 109.80