Market movers today
Today is another quiet day in terms of data releases.
The Fed’s Williams (non-voter, neutral) will speak this morning and later today it is time for US consumer confidence for June. We look for a small decline in line with what we have seen in the consumer survey from University of Michigan. The post -Trump consumer euphoria seems to have faded a bit . Tonight , more Fed speakers will be available (Kashkari and Harker).
In the Scandies, it is time for Swedish foreign trade and PPI data for May. Given the improvement in export indicators over the past few months, we would need to see some strong export numbers to remain positive on the out look for exports. Looking at seasonal patterns, we fear that net trade in May may have moved further into negative territory though.
Selected market news
Yesterday, German ifo expectations increased again in June to 106.8 from 106.5 in May (consensus: 106.4). This is the highest level since early 2014 and suggests a GDP above 1.0% q/q in Germany. The slightly higher ifo expectations were driven by the wholesale and retail sector expectations while manufacturing and construction sector expectations were unchanged compared with the levels in May. Note that despite the still solid ifo expectations and PMI figures, the euro area surprise index has declined during June.
In the US, core capex orders came out yesterday at -0.2% m/m in May, but were revised up in April from 0.1% to 0.2%. Orders have rebounded from previous lows but have stabilised recently, still at low levels. The figures suggest slower fixed investment growth in Q2 than in Q1.
It has been a calm session in global financial markets this morning. Asian stock markets have moved sideways mainly and in fixed income markets, changes in the US 10-year government benchmark bond yield have been quite muted since yesterday.
