Market movers ahead
- Inflation readings for both the US and the euro area will be clearly below central bank targets, both on actual and core measures.
- European growth indicators have remained high while others have weakened, but we expect to start seeing a decline in IFO numbers this week.
- China’s official PMI may start to show more weakness.
- We are optimistic on Swedish exports this year, and hopefully that will be reflected in the upcoming trade data.
- Lower unemployment and higher consumer spending could add to the increasing optimism in Norway.
Global macro and market themes
- Supply/demand dynamics suggest the oil price may fall further near term.
- Falling inflation expectations are driven by weaker demand and the lack of a monetary policy response.
- A hard Brexit is still the most likely outcome.
- Stay tactically long USD, slightly bearish equities.
- Expect core global yields to range trade, possibly with a slight upside bias in the US
