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Weekly Focus: Global Growth Losing Steam

Market movers ahead

  • The market will monitor incoming opinion polls ahead of the second round of the French Presidential election.
  • The FOMC is set to meet on Wednesday. We do not expect major changes in monetary policy or the statement.
  • We expect the US labour market report to show employment gains of 170,000 in April.
  • We look for small declines in April’s Chinese manufacturing PMI and the US ISM manufacturing indices due for publication next week.
  • FX reserve data is due in Denmark and Norges Bank is set to meet next week. We do not expect major changes in either announcement though.

Global macro and market themes

  • Markets are less worried about France, as Emmanuel Macron is the clear favourite against Marine Le Pen.
  • Do not get overexcited about Trumponomics.
  • With markets less worried about political uncertainty in Europe, focus may soon return to economics.
  • We do not expect much action at next week’s Fed meeting.
  • The rising risk from North Korea is a joker.

Focus

  • Tensions are rising fast between the US and North Korea and are likely to escalate further if North Korea continues with plans to carry out a nuclear test

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Danske Bank
Danske Bankhttp://www.danskebank.com/danskeresearch
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