USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0597; (P) 1.0672; (R1) 1.0778; More.

No change in USD/CAD's outlook so far as the pair continues to engage in choppy trading below key medium term cluster resistance at 1.0791/98 (61.8% retracement of 1.1874 to 0.9056 at 1.0798, 61.8% projection of 0.9056 to 1.0378 from 0.9974 at 1.0791). Outlook remains neutral for the moment and another fall to 1.0140 cluster support cannot be ruled out. On the upside, firm break of 1.0819 is needed to confirm recent rise has resumed. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains even in case of rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.9056 has met mentioned cluster resistance at 1.0791/98 (61.8% retracement of 1.1874 to 0.9056 at 1.0798, 61.8% projection of 0.9056 to 1.0378 from 0.9974 at 1.0791), but fails to sustain above so far. Focus is now on 1.0410 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.9974 to 1.0819 at 1.0397. As long as this support holds, recent rise is still in favor to continue. Sustained break of 1.0791/98 will argue that rise from 0.9056 is probably more than just a correction in the long term down trend and will set the stage to test key long term resistance at 1.1874.

On the downside, however, firm break of 1.0410 will firstly indicate that a short term top is at least in place with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Further break of 0.9974 will indicate that whole medium term rise from 0.9056 has completed and will have medium term outlook turned bearish again.

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