Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0399; (P) 1.0414; (R1) 1.0439; More…
EUR/USD recovers mildly today but stays in range of 1.0330/0629 and intraday bias stays neutral. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, but outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0629 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0330 will confirm resumption of whole decline from 1.1213. Sustained trading below 1.0404 fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implications.
In the bigger picture, focus stays on 50% retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 at 1.0404. Strong rebound from this level will keep price actions from 1.1273 (2023 high) as a medium term consolidation pattern only. However, sustained break of 1.0404 will raise the chance that whole up trend from 0.9534 has reversed. That would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.0199 first. Firm break there will target 0.9534 low again.